Nebius Nosedives as Capex Shock and Nvidia Leadership Change Hit AI Infrastructure Trade

Two Shocks, One Session: Guidance and Nvidia Rattle Nebius

Nebius Group was trading at $127.63 as of 16:02 UTC on 12 November 2026, down -17.63% against the previous close — the second sharp drop in a week for the AI infrastructure company, following a roughly 14% decline on 5 November after Bloomberg reported that Microsoft had tightened oversight of neocloud data-center projects.

The immediate triggers were a pair of developments that landed on the same morning. Nebius reported third-quarter revenue of $980.8 million, a 571% year-over-year increase that beat consensus estimates. But the headline beat was quickly overshadowed by what came with it: CEO Arkady Volozh said in the company's 12 November shareholder letter that delays at third-party data centers would push some revenue into early 2027, pulling this year's outlook to the low end of the $3 billion to $3.4 billion range. Volozh also said prepayments and financing tied to existing contracts should cover most of 2027 capex — but that capex figure itself alarmed markets. Nebius raised its 2026 capital expenditure plan to $27 billion and set a 2027 target of $40 billion to $45 billion, well above prior expectations, for 2027 revenue of $12 billion to $13 billion that was roughly in line with what analysts had already modeled.

The spending scale sharpened doubts about build-out economics across the neocloud sector. Separately, Nvidia confirmed in a 12 November press release that Jensen Huang resigned as CEO effective immediately, with CFO Colette Kress named interim CEO and Harvey C. Jones as board chair. The leadership change introduced fresh uncertainty for companies whose businesses are closely tied to Nvidia's ecosystem, and selling spread to Nebius and peer neocloud names. The GAAP loss for the quarter came in at $0.13 per share, and adjusted EBITDA swung to a positive $465.8 million from a loss of $5.2 million in the prior-year period. Delivery at several colocation sites, including remaining New Jersey capacity, has slipped into the first half of 2027.

A One-Month Slide That Keeps Deepening

The session's move extends a bruising stretch for Nebius shareholders. Over the past month, the stock has shed -36.4%, with a one-month high of $207.74 now well out of reach from current levels.

Third-quarter revenue nearly sextupled year-over-year, adjusted EBITDA turned positive, and the loss per share came in far narrower than estimates. The 12 November update also brought a larger capital commitment and a more cautious near-term revenue picture. A widening capex-to-revenue gap and sector-wide anxiety about neocloud debt loads coincided with continued pressure on the stock even as the underlying business scales rapidly.

Breakeven Target Anchors the Forward Case

The clearest forward marker from Nebius itself is CEO Volozh's stated target of pre-tax breakeven by the end of 2027, alongside plans to deploy more than 1 gigawatt of capacity annually starting that year. Whether the market treats that as credible will depend heavily on execution at the colocation sites now delayed into the first half of 2027.

On the Nvidia side, the search for a permanent successor to Huang is now underway, with Colette Kress serving as interim CEO. How that transition unfolds could continue to weigh on sentiment across the neocloud names that depend on Nvidia's supply chain and strategic relationships.