Warsh Goes Unscripted: FOMC Decision Day Arrives

No projections, no safety net: Warsh steps to the podium

The Federal Open Market Committee delivers its rate decision today, with markets pricing an overwhelming expectation that the target range holds at 3.50%-3.75%. CME FedWatch puts the odds of no change at roughly 68%, so a hold is firmly the base case even if the tail of surprises is not trivial. What makes this meeting structurally different is the absence of an updated Summary of Economic Projections. Chair Kevin Warsh, widely viewed as a policy hawk, faces the press without the customary dot plot as a buffer, so every word in unscripted remarks carries outsized signal value.

Traders are positioned for a hold, not for ambiguity. Any hawkish deviation in tone, particularly language emphasising low tolerance for elevated inflation, could trigger sharp moves across EUR/USD, US Treasuries and global equities. A hawkish Warsh would likely lift the dollar and press Treasuries lower; a neutral tone could unlock an equity relief rally as the near-term rate risk premium compresses. With forward guidance downplayed, attention concentrates on real-time rhetoric rather than projected trajectories, amplifying the potential for intraday volatility.

Oil retreats, and the data that follows

The backdrop has been reshaped by several developments. Crude has fallen sharply from last week's highs after the United States and Iran paused hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz, with President Trump reportedly halting a planned escalation on the advice of senior commanders. Brent, which briefly topped $100 last week, has retreated to roughly $85, though it remains up more than 20% on the month as Houthi threats to Saudi exports keep a supply-risk premium in the price. The pullback is a partial disinflationary signal rather than a clean collapse, and could complicate Warsh's inflation narrative at the margin.

The US data calendar is the other key element. The advance Q2 GDP estimate and June core PCE are both due Thursday, the day after the decision. Consensus points to GDP growth around 2.3% annualised and core PCE cooling to about 0.2% month-on-month from 0.3% in May, with the year-on-year core rate seen easing to 3.3%. Landing the morning after Warsh speaks, these prints could reinforce or undercut whatever tone he sets rather than pre-position markets ahead of him.

Two scenarios, one press conference

Today's binary event risk favours scenario planning over directional conviction. In the hawkish scenario, where Warsh signals low tolerance for inflation persistence and resists near-term easing, the dollar could rally against EUR/USD, Treasury yields could push higher across the curve, and equities may come under renewed pressure. Without a dot plot, any hawkish signal risks being read as personal conviction rather than a committee median, amplifying the reaction.

In the neutral-to-dovish scenario, where Warsh acknowledges the disinflationary impulse from lower energy costs and softer global data, risk assets could stage a relief rally, the dollar may give back recent gains and Treasury prices could firm. Watch whether Warsh references the oil retreat as a meaningful input to the inflation outlook; if he does, it would suggest the committee is incorporating the geopolitical de-escalation into its reaction function.

The following day's GDP and core PCE prints add a second layer of risk: a GDP reading that undershoots the 2.3% consensus, combined with a soft core PCE, would make hawkish rhetoric harder to sustain the morning after. EUR/USD traders should also watch whether Thursday's BoE decision gives sterling independent support that could limit dollar upside in the crosses.