Donald Trump breaks the magical barrier of 270 electoral votes and storms back to the Capitol. He thus becomes the second US president to do so. Now, when the post-election dust is slowly settling, we need to think again. Who will he choose for his cabinet, and how might it affect our investments?
Reuters’ analysis highlights key individuals who could shape U.S. financial policy under Trump’s leadership. It should be added that the Republicans will most likely also take over the Senate and perhaps the House of Representatives. If that were to happen, choosing your people would seem virtually limitless.
Potential Treasury Secretary
The United States Secretary of the Treasury functions similarly to a finance minister, handling everything from tax policy to national economic strategies. Trump’s shortlist includes several prominent figures in finance who could take on this vital role.
Scott Bessent
Bessent, a close economic adviser to Trump, stands as a leading candidate. With experience in hedge funds and teaching at Yale, he combines practical finance with academia. Known for supporting laissez-faire policies, he has also praised Trump’s use of tariffs, signaling a potential continuation of these strategies.
John Paulson
Billionaire hedge fund manager and major Trump donor, Paulson is another frontrunner. His views align with Trump’s pro-tax cut and deregulation stance. Paulson also supports strategic tariffs to protect U.S. interests and combat unfair trade practices. The deregulatory policy may, in turn, significantly impact the valuations of the United States financial sector, which constitutes a solid portion of its GDP.
Larry Kudlow
As a FOX Business personality and former director of Trump’s National Economic Council, Kudlow is an outsider for the treasury position but could take another critical economic role. His tenure under Trump and media influence may position him as a policy advisor.
Robert Lighthizer
A staunch Trump loyalist, Lighthizer served as Trump’s U.S. Trade Representative and could return in a similar role. He shared Trump’s strong belief in tariffs and led the charge in renegotiating NAFTA. While less likely to become Treasury Secretary, he could still play a significant part in trade policy. Its policy may significantly affect the price of pairs such as USDCAD or USDMXN.
Howard Lutnick
CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald and co-chair of Trump’s transition team, Lutnick has publicly supported Trump’s economic policies. Known for his outspoken support, Lutnick has reportedly shared bold predictions on Trump’s future policies, making him another key contender.
As you can see, all candidates agree with Trump – tariffs are reasonable. Although such a policy aims to protect the domestic market, it also poses a trade war risk. It may seriously affect the valuations of producers of electric cars, e.g., in both China and the USA.
Elon Musk
A character so well-known that he probably needs no introduction. CEO of Tesla and SpaceX could lead a new “Department of Government Efficiency” (D.O.G.E) tasked with streamlining federal operations. This role would align with Musk’s commitment to efficiency and innovation, potentially benefiting the broader economy.
Musk has a track record of radical changes; after taking over X (formerly Twitter), he reduced the workforce by nearly 80%, showing his willingness to cut the excess. This suggests he may have similar plans for the U.S. government, aiming to reduce federal spending and cut down the national deficit—a move that might impact the bond market while also strengthening the U.S. dollar by boosting fiscal stability and investor confidence.
Being in government could also allow Musk to advocate for policies that benefit his ventures. With Tesla producing electric vehicles, Starlink advancing global communication, and SpaceX innovating in aerospace, Musk’s influence could shape policies favorable to these sectors, potentially driving further growth for his companies in a business-friendly environment.
SEC Chairman: You’re fired, Gary!
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regulates financial markets and enforces securities laws, focusing strongly on crypto in recent years. Under Gary Gensler’s leadership, the SEC launched Operation Chokepoint 2.0, imposing stricter regulations on crypto exchanges, DeFi projects, and developers.
Gary Gensler, appointed by Joe Biden, has faced criticism for what some view as an anti-crypto stance. Trump recently declared in Nashville that firing Gensler would be his “first-day” priority, aligning with the trend of SEC chairs resigning with a new administration. Analysts, including Markus Thielen of 10x Research, expect Gensler to step down soon if Trump takes office, as did previous chairs during presidential transitions.
According to Thielen, “If historical patterns hold, Gensler may resign in December or January, with a new SEC chair potentially confirmed by April or May.” This shift could open doors for a crypto-friendly appointee under Trump, marking a significant regulatory pivot.
Conclusion
With Trump potentially back in the Oval Office, his choice of key figures for financial roles is worth watching. From the treasury secretary to a new SEC chair, Trump’s team could drive substantial changes in economic policy, market regulation, and the crypto landscape. For investors, these appointments could signalpolicy shiftsy that might affect everything from stock market stability to the future of digital assets.
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