Arguably, the most unprecedented race for the White House will finish on November 5th. Either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will become the new President of the United States. Unless there is a major outbreak, the whole world will wait until the official U.S. Elections results to find out we will be victorious.
Latest polls: Staying on the edge
Most democracies worldwide have rather simple rules for voting during presidential elections. The candidate who gets the most votes in the whole country claims the victory. Kamala Harris would win the U.S. Elections if the same system were used in the United States.
However, the system in the White House race slightly differs.
Read more about the U.S. Elections and the electoral system here!
In the United States, the electoral system focuses on each state individually. Depending on the number of citizens, each state gets a number of electoral votes. It’s a win-lose situation – the winner gets the whole state. This system has caused an unusual White House race that is happening in only several states.
Most of the U.S. has already decided. For example, California, Illinois, or Colorado will surely go to Harris, while Indiana, Kentucky, or Missouri will vote for Donald Trump. The inconclusive situation in seven swing states (Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Michigan) brings the most attention to these regions. The week before the elections, voters from swing states are not convinced, according to polls, and their choices will determine the future President of the United States.
U.S. Elections and trading: Need to know
This year, U.S. Elections will heavily impact the market, regardless of the outcome. Both candidates present different perspectives on the future economy of the United States, so traders have to be ready to react.
Taxation
From the traders’ point of view, even if indirectly, taxations heavily impact the economy and movements in the market. They can specifically affect equities and lead to fluctuations in indices and the whole economic landscape.
Donald Trump’s main objective is to make the market more independent by lowering taxes. What can be interesting from the traders’ perspective is lowering the corporate tax to 15% for specific companies. After Elon Musk’s support of Trump’s campaign, Tesla will be one of these companies that will have their taxes significantly cut.
The Democrat candidate chooses to increase taxes for the wealthiest. Harris aims to target middle-class voters by pointing out the need for a minimum billionaire tax. It can potentially move multiple assets, with S&P500 and NASDAQ at the forefront.
Trade tariffs
The former President insists on an across-the-board tariff for all imports from different countries. Mexico and China are two singled-out countries with “special” plans from Trump. The Republican candidate claims to introduce a 100% or 200% tariff on automobiles manufactured in Mexico. Moreover, Trump wants to impose tariffs on companies that moved factories from the U.S. to Mexico. It will significantly impact investing in USDMXN currency pair.
According to Harris, the potential Trump’s changes will affect the American consumers who would deal with spiking prices. Her main goal in terms of trade tariffs is to renegotiate the USMCA agreement between Canada and Mexico by focusing more on protecting the U.S. and its workers.
U.S. Elections: Harris or Trump?
It’s impossible to answer this question. Moreover, unless the major earthquake will tremble American politics, we won’t find out until exit polls. That’s why traders should keep tabs on the U.S. Elections covered by SimpleFX to find out how the potential outcome will affect the market.
