Nobody has a crystal ball to predict the outcome of the upcoming U.S. elections. However, there has been significant “support” for Kamala Harris. Allan Lichtman is a well-known historian and political analyst who is almost always right about the race for the White House.
Why Kamala Harris? Allan Lichtman and his methodology
Allan Lichtman is known for his correct predictions in every U.S. presidential election except George W. Bush’s triumph over Al Gore in 2000. His forecasts don’t come from mere observations, but complex analysis summed up in 13 yes/no questions.
Why does the historian pick Kamala Harris? Allan Lichtman points out several essential aspects of her candidacy that may bring her victory. These include short—and long-term positive economic indicators, a positive administrative background during Biden’s presidency, and a lack of social dramas related to the White House for the last four years. Lichtman also mentions the absence of a third strong candidate that might have taken some voters from the Democrats.
Find out more about the differences between Democrats and Republicans here!
Even though history speaks for Lichtman, his forecasts for 2024 were less favorable than before. The historian strongly disagreed with the switch from Joe Biden to the other candidate, even during the tragic situation of the current President in the summer. The next few months have shown that Harris, unlike Biden, can compete with Donald Trump.
What does it mean for traders?
For Republicans, the crypto market is the magnet for younger audiences, especially in the eyes of Donald Trump. However, it doesn’t mean that the potential win for the Democrats will ruin this emerging branch. Harris indicates that her objective is to keep the U.S. Dollar as strong as possible.
What might the strength of the USD and stability brought by the Democrats bring for traders? As commodities and metals are mostly pegged to the American currency, traders should keep tabs on assets like gold and natural gas. In terms of oil, the tense situation in the Middle East will probably be even more impactful.
Moreover, major American indices like the NASDAQ and S&P 500 usually show higher volatility in the months before the election. During the last three presidencies—Obama, Trump, and Biden—there have been growths due to the focus on several branches. Democratic candidates put attention on innovation and clean energy, while Trump took account of the energy and defense sectors.
Read more about the impact of elections on essential trading assets here!
Kamala Harris, Allan Lichtman – what about Trump?
Even though the most recognizable historian in the United States made his forecast, it doesn’t mean that Trump will give up. The campaign focuses on swing states and should stay the same during the last four weeks. Pennsylvania may be the key to the White House, as both Harris and Trump do everything they can to lure voters from PA.
Find out about issues related to natural gas in Pennsylvania
This unprecedented campaign goes into the final stage. In about four weeks, we will find out who will become the President of the United States for the next four years. Remember that even Allan Lichtman can make a mistake, so stay updated and keep tabs on U.S. elections with SimpleFX.
