HelloFresh is a publicly traded meal-kit company based in Berlin and listed in Frankfurt. It is the largest meal-kit provider in the US and operates also in Canada, Europe, and Australia. The company has seen significant growth over the last few years (especially during the COVID-19 pandemic) and has managed to maintain profitability. However, the brand has seen a recent slowdown in this solid upward trajectory in the last two years.
HelloFresh operates on a subscription-based revenue model that has proven highly successful in the meal kit delivery industry in previous years.
HFG.DE 1W Chart Analysis, August 31, 2023
HFG.DE – Is the trend about to change?
The beginning of the company’s upward solid trend dates back to August 2019, when light blue EMA9 and orange EMA50 formed a golden cross. The 2-year growth ended with a double top formation. It is worth noting that a bearish divergence accompanied it because the second peak of November 2021 was not confirmed on the RSI oscillator (orange lines).
Another confirmation of the trend reversal was the death cross marked with a red, vertical line. The price from its ATH eventually fell by as much as about 85%, reaching the bottom in March 2023.
The period from autumn 2022 to summer 2023 can be treated as forming a price bottom. A bullish divergence between January and April indicated the possibility of a trend reversal (marked with light blue horizontal lines). The June break on the MACD (green, vertical line) also favors the bullish camp with the 15% green weekly candle, piercing the EMA50 with impetus. This ties in with the possibility of a golden cross reappearing on the EMA9 and EMA50.
The future price situation of the company may develop in several ways. For almost all of 2022, the RSI indicator has been scrubbing the bottom, indicating an extremely oversold level. Since the MACD breakout, it’s now in the bullish zone (above 50) but still below the overbought level, usually defined as 70-80.
HFG.DE 1W Chart Analysis, Closer Look, August 31, 2023
HFG.DE price reaching upper Bollinger Band.
Price might be eyeing the Fibo 0.236 level (34.7). This level is quite essential because it was a critical price support in spring 2022. Reaching that retracement requires another 15% increase, which can prove challenging after such a significant candle.
Often, such corrections occur as the RSI reaches overbought levels. The probability of reaching this level on the current candle is all the less that the trade will close tomorrow with the weekend’s arrival. More importantly, the price already reaches the upper Bollinger Band, marked with the third standard deviation. This increases the chance of a short-term correction.
After such increases, the price most often retests essential levels and only then continues the increase. Such a level may be EMA50 (25.82). The importance of this price is also confirmed by the fact that it was also a resistance on the occasion of a bullish divergence.
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