The most popular cryptocurrency is experiencing solid increases due to Grayscale’s win in a lawsuit with the SEC. The court annulled the regulator’s decision regarding the company’s flagship BTC fund. According to commentators, the case may be relevant to other applications for approval of bitcoin ETFs.
In the case brought by the regulators, the company claimed that the Commission violated the act on the stock exchange by discriminating against issuers. Grayscale argued that by denying subsequent Bitcoin spot ETF applications, the SEC is acting “arbitrarily and capriciously,” especially given its approval of BTC futures ETFs. How can the decision affect the price of cryptocurrencies?
BTCUSD 1W, Long-term Analysis, August 30, 2023
From the technical side, EMA23 is very important for the BTCUSD price. In the period of the bear market (2018 and 2022) it is an apparent resistance, and in the period of the bull market (2020 – 2021) – clear support. The period from the year before the halving to the day the block reward is halved is marked with vertical orange lines. A sideways, choppy trend and oscillation around the EMA23 characterize it well. The dashed vertical line marks the beginning of the current pre-halving period.
Apart from the black swan event due to COVID-19, in 2019 – 2020, the price deviated from the EMA23 by up to 29%, only to gain and lose it later in a few months. After the first peak of double top in 2021, the price tanked by 33%. Then, the average was retrieved, and multiple tests were performed. The bear market started in December 2021 – since then, the EMA23 has become a resistance line. For now, its breakout in January 2023 may indicate the return of the bull market.
BTCUSD 1W, Long-term Analysis, August 30, 2023
Price trying to regain crucial levels.
A closer look at the chart shows that the price is trying to recover critical levels. These are primarily EMA 23 (27 480) and Fibo retracement 0.236 (28 078) – already tested with the green candle wick. The RSI indicator has regained the level of 50, separating the bear market’s momentum from the bull one. If the weekly candle closes above EMA23 and Fibo 0.236, it may favor the continuation of the uptrend. Otherwise, the decline may deepen.
BTCUSD 15M, Long-term Analysis, August 30, 2023
The 15M chart shows that the volatility range is within a very tight channel. It is between the Fibo retracements of 0.236 (27,609) and 0.382 (27,289). Tightening Bollinger Bands usually herald an upcoming spike in volatility. This breakout could be crucial for future Price Action and BTCUSD’s long-term price pursuit.
ETHUSD 1W, Long-term Analysis, August 30, 2023
ETHUSD mimicking BTCUSD price.
The price of the second most popular cryptocurrency follows in the footsteps of BTCUSD. In the pre-halving period, the price oscillates around EMA23. In a bull market, it becomes support; in a bear market – resistance. There is an evident relative ETHUSD weakness seen right now. The price did not recover either the Fibo 0.236 (1818) or the EMA23 (1780) retracement – not even with the candle’s wick. Moreover, the RSI is still below the crucial 50 level. This supports the statistic that altcoins tend to underperform BTCUSD before halving.
Closing the weekly candle above EMA23 or Fibo 0.236 is crucial for a trend reversal. Otherwise, the decline may deepen.
BNBUSD 1W, Long-term Analysis, August 30, 2023
BNBUSD is clearly unable to recover EMA23.
The situation on the 4th largest cryptocurrency in the world regarding capitalization – the Binance exchange token, is very poor. After the news of the court verdict, the price was unable to recover either the EMA23 (258) or, even less, the FIBO 0.236 retracement (3023. Moreover, you can see the high wick of a green candle forming, which can turn into a shooting star. Usually, it announces upcoming declines. An RSI of 37 underlines that the Binance exchange token reacted poorly to the news. BNBUSD is currently underperforming both – BTCUSD and ETHUSD.
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