August Core PCE: The Last Inflation Test Before October FOMC ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "August Core PCE: The Last Inflation Test Before October FOMC", "description": "The Fed's preferred inflation gauge is due at 13:30 London today — the final core PCE reading before the 27-28 October FOMC — and the outcome will set the tone for Treasuries, the dollar and European duration into month-end.", "image": [ "https://assets.simplefx.com/cms/49ada861-8978-41dd-a106-0f5431366670.jpg" ], "datePublished": "2026-09-30T06:09:41.183Z", "dateModified": "2026-09-30T06:09:41.035Z", "author": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "SimpleFX", "url": "https://simplefx.com", "sameAs": [ "https://simplefx.com/social/x", "https://simplefx.com/social/linkedin", "https://github.com/SimpleFXcom/simplefx-api", "https://simplefx.com/social/facebook", "https://simplefx.com/social/youtube", "https://simplefx.com/social/tiktok", "https://www.trustpilot.com/review/simplefx.com" ] }, "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "SimpleFX", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://simplefx.com/assets/images/simplefx-logo.png", "width": 600, "height": 60 }, "url": "https://simplefx.com", "sameAs": [ "https://simplefx.com/social/x", "https://simplefx.com/social/linkedin", "https://github.com/SimpleFXcom/simplefx-api", "https://simplefx.com/social/facebook", "https://simplefx.com/social/youtube", "https://simplefx.com/social/tiktok", "https://www.trustpilot.com/review/simplefx.com" ] }, "mainEntityOfPage": { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://simplefx.com/trading-news/august-core-pce-the-last-inflation-test-before-october-fomc" }, "articleSection": "交易新闻", "keywords": "market-pulse, macro, central-banks, bonds, commodities, geopolitics, fx, briefing-eu-2026-09-30", "inLanguage": "zh", "isAccessibleForFree": true, "wordCount": 833, "timeRequired": "PT5M" } ``` 78% 的散户投资者账户因与该 CFD 提供商进行 CFD 交易而遭遇现金损失。 CFD 是复杂的工具，由于杠杆作用，存在快速亏损的高风险。78% 的散户投资者账户在与该提供商交易 CFD 时亏损。您应该考虑您是否了解 CFD 的运作方式，以及您是否有能力承担亏损的高风险。 CFD 是复杂的工具，由于杠杆作用，存在快速亏损的高风险。78% 的散户投资者账户在与该提供商交易 CFD 时亏损。您应该考虑您是否了解 CFD 的运作方式，以及您是否有能力承担亏损的高风险。 [![SimpleFX logo](./assets/images/simplefx-logo.png?v=2)](zh/) 提供 [促销 新的 查看最新优惠活动](zh/promotions "查看最新优惠活动") [加密货币 在 SimpleFX 上查看比特币和山寨币](zh/offer/crypto "在 SimpleFX 上查看比特币和山寨币") [外汇 选择主要和次要货币对](zh/offer/forex "选择主要和次要货币对") [指数 参与全球指数](zh/offer/indices "参与全球指数") [商品 在能源和农业资产之间进行选择](zh/offer/commodities "在能源和农业资产之间进行选择") [金属 深挖高价值市场](zh/offer/metals "深挖高价值市场") [股票 探索美国、欧洲和亚洲的公司](zh/offer/equities "探索美国、欧洲和亚洲的公司") [ETF 新的 在同一仓位交易整个指数、板块和主题](zh/offer/etf "在同一仓位交易整个指数、板块和主题") [Earn - 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English AR - العربية ES - Español FR - Français HI - Hindi ID - Bahasa Indonesia KO - Korean MY - Malay PT-BR - Português RU - Русский TH - ภาษาไทย TR - Türkçe VI - Tiếng Việt ZH - 中文 * [](zh/ "家") * [交易新闻](zh/trading-news) * August Core PCE: The Last Inflation Test Before October FOMC August Core PCE: The Last Inflation Test Before October FOMC ============================================================ The Fed's preferred inflation gauge is due at 13:30 London today — the final core PCE reading before the 27-28 October FOMC — and the outcome will set the tone for Treasuries, the dollar and European duration into month-end. Updated 06:09:41 30/09/2026 ![August Core PCE: The Last Inflation Test Before October FOMC](https://assets.simplefx.com/cms/medium_49ada861-8978-41dd-a106-0f5431366670.jpg) One Number, One Window: PCE Lands Into a Bruised Bond Market ------------------------------------------------------------ August core PCE is scheduled for release at 13:30 London today, arriving at one of the more consequential moments for fixed income in recent memory. Consensus expects a monthly gain of +0.3% on the core measure, with the annual rate seen in a range of roughly 3.3-3.4%. The headline reading is forecast higher, in a +0.4-0.5% monthly range. These are expectations, not outcomes — and the gap between the two will drive the afternoon session. The stakes are elevated because this is the last core PCE print the Fed will see before the 27-28 October FOMC. Prediction markets currently assign roughly a 68-69% probability to a 25 basis point hike at that meeting. A reading that comes in above the consensus monthly figure would harden that pricing further, extending the global long-end selloff that has already pushed benchmark yields to multi-year highs. A soft print offers duration its only credible near-term relief — but there is a catch. Annual revisions accompanying today's release may revise the July PCE figure lower by two or three tenths, potentially pulling the 12-month rate toward 3%. If that happens, a seemingly benign annual number could be read as a statistical artefact rather than genuine disinflation. Traders will need to strip out the revision effect quickly and focus on the unrevised monthly momentum to gauge the true signal. A soft headline built on downward revisions to prior months is likely to be dismissed as stale data rather than celebrated as a turning point. The release lands into a bond market already under severe stress. Ten-year Treasury yields held near their highest level since 2007 during Asian hours on 30 September, with the month of September on course for one of the largest monthly yield rises in roughly two years. The 30-year has climbed above levels not seen since the early 2000s. European duration has moved in sympathy, with Bunds, gilts and BTPs all under pressure. A hotter-than-expected core PCE would extend that selloff into the European close and likely lift the dollar index, weighing on EUR/USD which is already sitting near multi-month lows. For European equity desks, the transmission is direct: higher long-end yields compress valuations, and energy-intensive sectors face a double squeeze given elevated crude prices. A softer print would offer some relief to rate-sensitive names, though the broader context — energy costs, fiscal stress in France, and a hawkish ECB — limits how far any rally could run on a single data point. Bond Rout, Crude Risk and French Spread Pressure Set the Stage -------------------------------------------------------------- The bond selloff deepened after President Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, removing a diplomatic off-ramp that markets had partially priced. Brent crude rallied for a second consecutive session before a reported emergency reserve release pulled prices back. The Hormuz premium is keeping energy costs elevated and hardening global rate expectations — a direct input into today's PCE read. Separately, French 10-year yields surged to an 18-year high on 30 September, pushing the OAT-Bund spread to its widest since the 2010-2012 euro sovereign debt crisis. Drivers include a widening budget deficit, political fragmentation and proposed spending cuts, with French Senate elections falling in early October. The spread widening is dragging gilts and BTPs with it and adding a political risk premium to the euro. Jobs Data and Euro-Area Inflation Follow on 2 October ----------------------------------------------------- If today's PCE lands in line or softer, the next test arrives on 2 October: the US September employment report, where consensus sits at +90k nonfarm payrolls with unemployment at 4.1%. Analysis suggests even a notably weak print may not be sufficient to shift October hike pricing materially. On the same date, Eurostat releases the September flash euro-area HICP, with national readings from Germany, France, Italy and Spain preceding it. A firm core or services component there could harden ECB December hike expectations and put a floor under the euro. ### Risk Factors * Revision whipsaw: annual benchmark revisions to prior PCE data could distort the headline annual rate, creating a sharp initial market move that partially reverses once traders adjust for the revision effect. * Event-day gap risk: with long-end yields already at multi-year highs and positioning stretched, a surprise in either direction on core PCE could trigger outsized moves in Treasuries and the dollar in thin pre-European-close liquidity. * Hormuz headline risk: any fresh development on the US-Iran diplomatic situation — in either direction — could override the PCE signal for crude and risk assets mid-session. * OAT contagion: further widening in the French OAT-Bund spread into month-end could amplify any negative reaction in European duration and equities, particularly if the PCE print is hot. This article does not constitute financial advice. All information is provided for informational purposes only. Past market behaviour is not indicative of future results. Trading involves significant risk of loss. This article was generated with AI assistance and may contain errors. SimpleFX Markets Desk — AI-assisted market analysis for active traders * [One Number, One Window: PCE Lands Into a Bruised Bond Market](#one_number__one_wind) * [Bond Rout, Crude Risk and French Spread Pressure Set the Stage](#bond_rout__crude_ris) * [Jobs Data and Euro-Area Inflation Follow on 2 October](#jobs_data_and_euro-a) × 简单开户。 开始投资的简单方法。 无费用，无最低存款 输入你的电子邮箱 我接受[使用条款](https://simplefx.com/legal-documents)和[隐私政策](https://simplefx.com/privacy-policy/)。 立即开设账户 ![发现 SimpleFX](/assets/images/new-sfx-app-webtrader-mobile-v2@2x.png) ![SimpleFX](assets/images/simplefx-logo-white.png) 在 - 找到我们 [](/social/facebook)[](/social/linkedin)[](/social/youtube)[](/social/tiktok) 加入我们的社区 [](/social/x)[](/social/discord) 下载SimpleFX [](https://simplefx.com/get-app/ios) 扫描此二维码 下载应用程序。 ![](https://api.simplefx.com/mobile-store/qr/ios) [](https://simplefx.com/get-app/android) 扫描此二维码 下载应用程序。 ![](https://api.simplefx.com/mobile-store/qr/android) [提供](zh/offer) 提供 [加密货币](zh/offer/crypto) [外汇](zh/offer/forex) [指数](zh/offer/indices) [商品](zh/offer/commodities) [股票](zh/offer/equities) [ETF](zh/offer/etf) [金属](zh/offer/metals) [Earn - Stake & Trade](zh/earn-stake-trade) [促销](zh/promotions) [TiMi - AI 交易伙伴](zh/timi-ai-trade-mate) [前往优惠](zh/offer) [平台](zh/platforms) 平台 [移动应用](zh/mobile-app) [桌面应用程序](zh/desktop-app) [Web 应用程序](zh/web-trader) [前往平台](zh/platforms) 交易信息 [我们的标志](zh/instruments) [支付方式](zh/payments) [SFX - SimpleFX Coin](zh/sfx-simplefx-coin) [Bitcoin Lightning Network](zh/bitcoin-lightning-network) [零费用](zh/zero-fees) [API](https://github.com/SimpleFXcom/simplefx-api) [交易新闻](zh/trading-news) 支持 [帮助中心](zh/help-center) [经常问的问题](zh/faq) [地位](zh/status) [货币计算器](zh/currency-calculator) [学院](https://simplefxacademy.com) 公司 [关于我们](zh/about) [网络安全意识](zh/cybersecurity-awareness) [连接业务](zh/connect-for-business) [品牌资产](zh/brand-assets) 附属机构 [成为一个合伙人（参与者](zh/affiliate) [Unilink](zh/unilink) 隐私和监管 [合法文件](zh/legal-documents) [滚下](zh/rollover) [隐私政策](zh/privacy-policy) [Cookie 政策](https://simplefx.com/resources/SimpleFX_CookiesPolicy.pdf) **SimpleFX Group**由以下实体组成： **8TECH LTD**经毛里求斯金融服务委员会授权并受其监管，许可证号为 GB23201604。办公地址：毛里求斯埃比尼银银大厦 Cybercity，银行街 18 号底层。8TECH LTD 不提供任何法定货币兑换服务和加密货币兑换服务。8TECH LTD 不支持加密货币交易账户或加密货币存款。 **8TECH ZA (PTY) LTD 是**一家加密资产服务提供商和 FSP，持有南非金融部门行为监管局 (FSCA) 授权的 53073 号许可证，办公地址：4 Haven Lane Malvern Queensburgh Durban Kwa-Zulu Natal 4093，南非。8TECH ZA (PTY) LTD 提供加密货币存款，并支持基于 FSCA 53073 号许可证的加密货币交易账户，并提供加密资产子类别。 **8TECH PA LLC**已获得库纳德瓦尔甘迪国际服务管理局 (KUNAISA) 的许可，持有外汇交易许可证（许可证号：FX0032026）和虚拟资产服务提供商 (VASP) 许可证（许可证号：V0042026），公司编号为 0004-IBC-2026，注册地址为巴拿马共和国库纳德瓦尔甘迪地区努拉瓦拉莫尔蒂镇库奈萨大厦中央大街。8TECH PA LLC 是 SimpleFX 网站（免费交易和投资平台）的所有者。 **SimpleFX 集团**未获得任何欧盟机构、欧洲经济区国家主管部门或英国的授权。SimpleFX 服务不受欧盟和英国监管框架的约束。您不受投资者赔偿基金的保障。 本网站上的信息并不构成，也不应被解释或理解为从事任何投资或交易活动的诱导或招揽，也不旨在向欧盟、欧洲经济区或英国公民营销或推广 SimpleFX 服务。 **SimpleFX Group**不向美国或任何分发或使用违反当地法律或法规的国家的公民和居民提供服务。 **风险警告** 外汇、虚拟资产或其他保证金场外产品的保证金交易具有高风险，可能并不适合所有人。我们建议您根据个人情况仔细考虑交易是否适合您。 CFD 是复杂的工具，由于杠杆作用，存在快速亏损的高风险。78% 的散户投资者账户在与该提供商交易 CFD 时亏损。您应该考虑您是否了解 CFD 的运作方式，以及您是否有能力承担亏损的高风险。 任何利润都可能需要缴税，您应该就您的税务状况寻求独立建议。 2026 SimpleFX版权所有。 [ 写信给我们。 我们每周 5 天、每天 24 小时响应。 ](https://app.simplefx.com/login?action=open-livechat)