October CPI: The Last Inflation Read Before December Fed Decision ```json { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "NewsArticle", "headline": "October CPI: The Last Inflation Read Before December Fed Decision", "description": "The BLS releases October CPI at 13:30 UTC, the final inflation print before the Fed's 8–9 December meeting, with the monthly core figure carrying most of the weight after a data gap makes annual comparisons unavailable.", "image": [ "https://assets.simplefx.com/cms/1f41ce1c-9161-4c62-a57a-52ca65963634.jpg" ], "datePublished": "2026-11-10T06:06:57.948Z", "dateModified": "2026-11-10T06:06:57.887Z", "author": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "SimpleFX", "url": "https://simplefx.com", "sameAs": [ "https://simplefx.com/social/x", "https://simplefx.com/social/linkedin", "https://github.com/SimpleFXcom/simplefx-api", "https://simplefx.com/social/facebook", "https://simplefx.com/social/youtube", "https://simplefx.com/social/tiktok", "https://www.trustpilot.com/review/simplefx.com" ] }, "publisher": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "SimpleFX", "logo": { "@type": "ImageObject", "url": "https://simplefx.com/assets/images/simplefx-logo.png", "width": 600, "height": 60 }, "url": "https://simplefx.com", "sameAs": [ "https://simplefx.com/social/x", "https://simplefx.com/social/linkedin", "https://github.com/SimpleFXcom/simplefx-api", "https://simplefx.com/social/facebook", "https://simplefx.com/social/youtube", "https://simplefx.com/social/tiktok", "https://www.trustpilot.com/review/simplefx.com" ] }, "mainEntityOfPage": { "@type": "WebPage", "@id": "https://simplefx.com/trading-news/october-cpi-the-last-inflation-read-before-december-fed-decision" }, "articleSection": "Trading news", "keywords": "market-pulse, macro, central-banks, inflation, us-treasuries, fed, commodities, geopolitics, briefing-eu-2026-11-10", "inLanguage": "en", "isAccessibleForFree": true, "wordCount": 727, "timeRequired": "PT4M" } ``` 78% of retail investor accounts experience cash losses as a result of trading CFDs with this CFD provider. CFDs are complex instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. CFDs are complex instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. 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English AR - العربية ES - Español FR - Français HI - Hindi ID - Bahasa Indonesia KO - Korean MY - Malay PT-BR - Português RU - Русский TH - ภาษาไทย TR - Türkçe VI - Tiếng Việt ZH - 中文 * [](/ "Home") * [Trading news](/trading-news) * October CPI: The Last Inflation Read Before December Fed Decision October CPI: The Last Inflation Read Before December Fed Decision ================================================================= The BLS releases October CPI at 13:30 UTC, the final inflation print before the Fed's 8–9 December meeting, with the monthly core figure carrying most of the weight after a data gap makes annual comparisons unavailable. Updated 06:06:57 10/11/2026 ![October CPI: The Last Inflation Read Before December Fed Decision](https://assets.simplefx.com/cms/medium_1f41ce1c-9161-4c62-a57a-52ca65963634.jpg) October CPI: Why the Monthly Core Figure Carries Most of the Weight Today ------------------------------------------------------------------------- The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes October CPI at 13:30 UTC, and for once the monthly figure matters more than the annual rate. Because October 2025 prices were never collected during a 43-day government shutdown, the BLS will not publish official 12-month changes alongside today's release. That strips traders of their usual year-on-year anchor and concentrates attention on the monthly core reading. Consensus, as compiled by Reuters, Dow Jones, and Bloomberg surveys, puts headline inflation at plus 0.3% month-on-month and core at plus 0.2% month-on-month. Both would represent a step down from September's 0.6% headline and 0.3% core, with lower gasoline prices expected to do much of the work on the headline side. The stakes are sharpened by timing. This is the last CPI print the Fed will see before its 8–9 December meeting, where futures currently price a 25 basis point hike as the likely outcome. A core reading at 0.3% or above would firm those expectations, putting upward pressure on Treasury yields and the dollar while weighing on gold and rate-sensitive technology shares. Only a clearly soft 0.1% core print would materially shift the calculus against a December move. A reading in line with the 0.2% consensus leaves the picture murkier. It would neither confirm nor dispel the case for December tightening, and with annual comparisons unavailable, the Fed and markets alike will be working from a thinner evidence base than usual going into what could be a consequential meeting. Oil Slide and Trade Truce Shape the Backdrop -------------------------------------------- Crude fell sharply in Asian trading after President Trump described renewed strikes on Iran as highly unlikely, easing one source of energy-inflation pressure. The move supports European cyclicals and bonds but weighs on oil majors; any breakdown in the Iran talks could reverse it quickly. For the CPI story specifically, the oil decline bears on future inflation readings rather than the October print already in the data. China formalised a two-month extension of its tariff truce with the United States on 10 November, suspending an additional layer of duties while a base tariff remains in place. The extension lowers near-term trade-escalation risk and offers some support to European exporters, autos, and shipping names ahead of the open. Separately, China's October producer prices accelerated to their fastest pace since mid-2022, driven by energy costs, even as consumer inflation softened — a cost-push dynamic that could eventually feed into goods prices elsewhere. Auction Risk Follows the CPI at 18:00 UTC ----------------------------------------- The sequence of risk does not end with the 13:30 UTC CPI release. The Treasury auctions 42 billion dollars of 10-year notes at 18:00 UTC, hours after the inflation data lands. The evidence shows that a weak auction tail, especially after a hot CPI, could push long-end yields higher and extend any sell-off in Treasuries into the European close, with knock-on pressure on Bunds and Gilts. Solid auction demand after a benign CPI, by contrast, could extend the recent bond relief rally. The ECB's 17 December meeting, where OIS pricing implies a high probability of a 25 basis point hike, gives European rate markets their own parallel sensitivity to any shift in the global rates narrative that today's US data may trigger. ### Risk Factors * Headline-driven whipsaw: the absence of official 12-month CPI comparisons means the market may initially misread the monthly print, creating sharp two-way moves in Treasuries and the dollar before a consensus interpretation forms. * Sequential event risk: the 10-year Treasury auction at 18:00 UTC follows the CPI release, meaning a hot print could compound selling pressure across the session rather than allowing markets to stabilise. * Iran talks gap risk: the crude oil decline rests on diplomatic signals that could reverse abruptly, reintroducing energy-inflation concerns and complicating the Fed's read of the inflation path. * Tariff truce expiry: the China-US suspension runs to 10 January 2027, and Beijing has flagged it may adjust countermeasures as Section 301 duties are prepared, keeping a tail risk of renewed trade escalation in the near term. This article does not constitute financial advice. It is produced for informational purposes only. Past market behaviour is not a reliable indicator of future results. Trading financial instruments involves significant risk of loss. This article was generated with AI assistance and may contain errors. SimpleFX Markets Desk — AI-assisted market analysis for active traders * [October CPI: Why the Monthly Core Figure Carries Most of the Weight Today](#october_cpi__why_the) * [Oil Slide and Trade Truce Shape the Backdrop](#oil_slide_and_trade_) * [Auction Risk Follows the CPI at 18:00 UTC](#auction_risk_follows) × Simple account opening. Simple way to start investing. No fees and no minimum deposits Enter your e-mail I accept the [Terms of Use](https://simplefx.com/legal-documents) & [Privacy Policy](https://simplefx.com/privacy-policy/). 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