U.S. Election: It’s happening!

Every four years, the world’s attention turns to the United States, where voters cast their ballots to elect the next president of a global superpower. Once again, a woman has a chance at this prestigious office. Moreover, if the decision were left to the tiny village of Dixville Notch in New Hampshire, we’d be at an impasse.

Why?

Dixville Notch, home to just six residents, kicked off and concluded the nation’s first vote as per tradition. The result? A 3-3 tie. All six cast their ballots just past midnight, and the outcome was declared instantly. Back in 2020, all five voters from this town rallied behind Joe Biden.

U.S. Election: All you need to know

To those unfamiliar with the U.S. voting system, it can be puzzling. Unlike many countries, the U.S. election is an indirect process—citizens vote for electors, who then, in turn, vote for the president in the Electoral College. This unique system means voters are technically choosing electors who will represent them in selecting the president. With approximately 244 million Americans eligible to vote, the U.S. election is a large-scale event that reflects a variety of voices. And already, over 76 million have cast their ballots via early voting and mail-in options, reflecting the high stakes and intense public interest.

Each state is assigned a certain number of electoral votes based on population, and a candidate needs at least 270 votes to win. Key to this race are the swing states—where voter preferences could go either way. Swing states are the stage for the fiercest battles, as a win in these regions often decides the outcome. Candidates pour resources into these areas, focusing their campaigns and outreach efforts to secure these critical votes.

Which ones are considered swing states in 2024?

Every election introduces new dynamics. In 2024, a set of seven swing states with 93 electoral votes combined are under the spotlight. The mix of factors—from demographic shifts to campaign messages—make these states hotly contested.

In the Western U.S., Nevada (6 electoral votes) and Arizona (11) are shaping up to be battlegrounds, while in the Southeast, Georgia (16) and North Carolina (16) draw intense focus. Northern states like Wisconsin (10), Michigan (15), and Pennsylvania (19) are also pivotal. These states have historically shown close polling, and with their large number of electoral votes, they are highly likely to sway the final decision.

Candidates have tailored their messages and policies to resonate with the unique voter bases in these regions, and it’s a tactic that has kept the race suspenseful, week by week.

Candidates: Key differences

The candidates offer starkly different approaches to economic and policy agendas, clearly contrasting visions for the future.

Kamala Harris: Economic proposals

Kamala Harris’s platform emphasizes economic measures focused on building a sustainable future, investing in clean energy, expanding access to affordable healthcare, and creating middle-income tax relief. Her economic vision includes promoting clean technology and education. If elected, among sensible sectors are green energy, tech, and healthcare, as Harris aims to support a more equitable and sustainable economy.

Donald Trump: Economic proposals

Donald Trump brings an agenda focused on boosting traditional industries and driving economic growth through tax cuts and reduced regulation. His support for fossil fuels, defense expansion, and tax relief could mean strong backing for industries aligned with those values. Should Trump retake office, sectors like oil, defense, and finance might see increased momentum, with an emphasis on domestic production and business incentives. Moreover, as he pointed out in Nashville, he is optimistic about the cryptocurrency market. Trump outlined an ambitious vision to harness the U.S.’s natural resources to transform the nation into the world’s most cost-effective Bitcoin mining hub.  By integrating it into America’s strategic national reserves and ceasing the sale of government-held Bitcoin, he aimed to bolster the U.S. dollar and strengthen the national economy.

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U.S. Election: How will the market react?

It’s difficult to predict precisely how markets will react, especially given the tight race between the candidates. Valuations of currencies, commodities, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies will depend on the administration that takes office.

More specifically, November has been a month of growth for indices like the US500 following Trump’s 2016 victory and Biden’s 2020 win. Monitoring markets closely is essential, as volatility is expected regardless of the outcome.

2016 Election

Donald Trump ran in the elections 8 years ago. He won then against Hillary Clinton.

Growing election November 2016.

As you can see, the whole of November turned out to be on an upward trend, although its beginning was clearly downward (-2%). Since the election day, the index has grown by 2.7% and almost 5% by the end of the year. The increases started during election week.

2020 Election

Peak period of the pandemic – Americans are deciding between Trump and Biden.

Growing election November 2020.

How did the S&P500 index behave 4 years ago?

The entire month of November ended with an almost 10% gain. From election day to the end of the month, the growth was 7.5%, and by the end of the year over 11%. The increases started from the very election day.

2024 Election

This is the third time Donald Trump is running for president of the United States.

For now, flat election November 2024.

The analogy with the previous two elections is clearly visible. Before the election, we experienced significant de-risking on the index. Investors are positioning themselves for an uncertain election result. In the last two cases, election day marked the beginning of a growth period. Will it be like that this time?

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Conclusion

The U.S. presidential election isn’t just an American event; it’s a global spectacle with significant economic impact. From the unique Electoral College system to the pivotal role of swing states, every detail adds to the anticipation and potential for market shifts. As candidates race toward the finish line, the impact of their policies on markets—from clean energy to defense—could shape the financial landscape well beyond the election.

The information provided on this website does not, and is not intended to, constitute investment advice; instead, all information, content, and materials available on this site are for general informational purposes only.